The political events around the historical date of Jesus' birth are best known from the writings of Josephus Flavius, the Jewish historian who lived from 37 AD to about 95 AD. His testimony has always been considered vital in determining Jesus' birthdate. According to Josephus, there was a lunar eclipse right after the death of Herod the Great, who executed John the Baptist and who ruled at the time of the Crucifixion. And on March 12 - 13 in the year 4 BC, there was a lunar eclipse. Tradition says that these dates are equivalent. So, Jesus was born before 4 BC.
The AD calendar system was calculated by a scholar in 6 AD with the birthdate of Jesus as Western calendar's dividing timeline. But later scholars disputed that this calculation was inaccurate. (For more discussion on topics related to Jesus' birthdate, read http://www.hillsdale.edu/imprimis/1996/Dec96Imprimis.pdf )
The meaning of Christmas is not so much about its underlying date calculation arithmetic as it is about God's Love on earth to give hope and peace to those He cares about. Nonetheless, the most important date in human history is unhesitatingly "December 25, the year ZERO." Jesus' birthdate, whenever it may be, is the only point in time that matters to the faithful when they think of the marvelous work of God at Bethlehem.
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